I TRIED TO ATTACH THE CHARTS BUT YOUR SYSTEM WOULD NOT PERMIT IT. IF, BY SOME CHANCE YOU do WANT TO SEE THE SEMI-lOG cHARTS, SEND ME AN E-MAIL ADDRESS AND I WILL FORWARD THEM TO YOU.

Still straight, predictive lines. As Arizona picks up testing, I expect the red, Total Cases to shift upward …as people with Covid 19 but not hospitalized get added to the total. If I am correct, you will see a “knee” in the curve when the results of this increased testing is published.

As Arizona increases its testing I expect the Total Cases to slope upward. I’m not sure how valid future plots of “Total Cases” will be. I expect the “Deaths” data to be valid until there becomes an economic advantage to lump heart attack, cancer and even accidental deaths of patients who happen to test positive for Covid 19 even though they really died from other causes.

I have also added minor grids on the Semi Log axis. These minor grids are also Semi-Log, distance between 100 and 200 is different than between 200 and 300 while 800 to 900 is quite small.

IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO RECEIVE E-MAILS ON THS TOPIC, SIMPLY SEND ME A REPLY “NO CORONA”

Charts below are Semi-Log. Vertical axis increases 10 times for each equal distance. The special thing about Semi-Log Charts is that they can be used to predict future rates. Using a straight edge on any segment of the curve can be used to extrapolate into the FUTURE. When the line changes slope or direction, it indicates something has happened to change future events. Social distancing began around 3/20 and the Red (AZ Total Cases) curve moved towards the horizontal. The Blue line (AZ Deaths) also changed slope, but about two weeks later.

The “Projected Deaths” bar chart was based on data from 3/1 to 4/8 and extrapolated to May 1. I have not changed this original prediction. The blue, Actual Deaths indicates that Social Distancing and other events have helped to greatly reduce the death rate.

It is now clear that this is a long term event. The second chart has a greatly extended time line. The blue dotted line is the best trend line I was able to generate using Excel. It is NOT a straight line, therefore not ENTIRELY accurate. If you print the charts you can use a ruler to extrapolate by extending the latest straight line segment (the latest straight line segment represents the most recent overall practices). As the push to RESTART begins, if the curve shifts upward, it will be a strong indicator that we began to socialize much too soon.

Arizona Covid 19 has followed the Semi-log predictive characteristics extremely well. Data has to be from the same consistent source. IE As NY City recently began to assume previous untested deaths were due to Covid19, this would cause an upward change. I have not even considered graphing the US, CA NY or world data as it would be overwhelming. However, if anyone wants to enter data for their own area of interest, I would be happy to send you an Excel template where you could enter the date, number of cases, number recovered, number of deaths. I will try to help get the final output format you are after.